Is Secession a Viable Alternative?

My intent with this post is to look closer at secession and to discover what might be gained from it, in order to determine if it is a viable proposition at all. To start, let’s assume that the states voted to secede, with about half going to each side (call them “Red America” and “Blue America”). Let’s also assume that it is amicable, and that it doesn’t start another civil war (so I can analyze the process and likely outcome). It also doesn't matter where Washington D.C. goes, or if some red (or blue) states are separated from each other physically.

Now, looking at the demographics of the situation, we have to remember that there are plenty of liberals who live in red states, and plenty of conservative-types who live in blue states. It is not as though  all liberals will suddenly move to a blue state to be with their own, and vice-versa. So there will still be a mix of ideologies in both America’s, but it will definitely be much more uniform on each side than in the country as a whole. 

Analyzing that point, the country today is probably about 40% conservative/right, 30% liberal/left and 30% “moderates” (go ahead and argue, it doesn’t matter for theoretical purposes). But if you separate the red from the blue states, the percentages will naturally change to reflect the predominance of each ideological group in each set of states. I don’t have such data, but as a guesstimate, Red America would probably become 60% conservative, 30% moderate and 10% liberal, with similar percentages for Blue America. 

As you can see, Red America (which would quickly change its name to shrug off the “Red/Communist” moniker) would have a majority of conservatives and other “right-wingers” on its side - maybe even a super-majority. They would no longer have to contend with a sizable portion of Americans who think and/or vote like liberals. The same  principle would apply to Blue America. 

Each “country” would then be able to implement the agenda that they desire. They could restructure the laws to suit them, and eventually achieve their desired state (literally and figuratively). The minority in each country might complain, and the moderates might temper the movement, but without the built-in opposition, each group could easily achieve what they felt was best for them.

At this point some people will jump to the conclusion that such a scenario will cause each side to suddenly become a bunch of extremists, and would institute totalitarian regimes. But this is not realistic. We are Americans, after all, and the preponderance of citizens - on the left and the right - are not inclined to such absurdities. 

It only seems like it because we have small groups of people who are very vocal about their ideals, but it seems to me that they shout only because they cannot achieve their values in our partisan world. If they could achieve their values, they would quiet down quickly. The left in our country are not after a totalitarian dictatorship, even if it seems that way to conservatives. The progressives dominate, and their goal is a slow transformation to a European-style socialism. Likewise, it is fantasy to believe the religious right want a theocratic state. Maybe some do, but they are too few to give credence to. 

So, a secession would have the practical benefit of bringing political satisfaction and thus, peace, to everybody involved. It is a viable alternative, if only enough people desired it. But that is the burning question - is there the will? That answer is no (see: “Is Secession Even Possible?”). 

However, there are some other questions that should be considered. One is: If half the states wanted to opt out, what would the other states do? I think it depends on who is the president at the time. Suffice it to say that a Democrat president would not want the red states to leave. But then, what would he do about it? If he ordered the military to intervene, would they follow his orders or would they side with the departing states? 

Consider that the military would be dispersed throughout states in both groups, putting them either in an untenable position or a position of opportunity, depending. There would be far too many divided allegiances as military members come from all over the country, and  they would face severe internal conflicts. Most of all, they would face the fact that families and friends would be killing each other on a large scale.

Given that, I don’t believe they would step in to decide this question militarily. The odds are that they would see that there is no good outcome to military might exercised within our borders, and would likely let the political process determine the outcome. 

To believe they would act militarily is to believe they would simply follow in blind obedience, that they are robots and indifferent to the risk of mass death and destruction on American soil, inflicted by them. That is phooey. If there were a serious demand for secession, they would respect the will of the people and would let it take its course, just as the Egyptian military did during the Arab Spring (it was only when President Morsi went too far into dictatorship that they intervened, and even then it was mostly bloodless). 

If they did carry out orders to stop half the states from declaring their independence and met with resistance, how far would they take it? Would they actually inflict massive military destruction? In this day and age? Really? But aren’t the liberals the anti-war people? A Democrat president would never order such a thing! Right? 

On the other hand, if it were only one or a few states, the military might find the wherewithal to move in, but would likely take an “occupying” stance, and not a belligerent, forceful one. They might restrict trade, impose curfews, etc., and there would probably not be enough people to oppose it with arms. This simply implies the need for a broad enough demand for secession before it should be attempted. 

As to the references to the Civil War - that is sooo sixties. Eighteen-sixties, that is. Just because it happened then is no reason to believe it would repeat, any more than there is reason to believe that past performance in the stock market determines future performance. Today is an entirely different era, and the one does not correlate to the other. A person needs to assess the mood of the people today (as I am doing in this post), in order to determine likely outcomes. 

And I cannot believe that OUR military would come in guns-a-blazin’, killing Americans. Not in this day and age. Even Scotland tried pushing for its independence, and it was a peaceful process. Why shouldn’t it work the same way in America? If we pursued the question peacefully and set up a vote, just like in Scotland, it could be done without issue. All it would take is enough demand by the people. 

Another question is whether the two countries could exist side-by-side peacefully. Would they come into conflict with each other over issues such as pollution/global warming, or trade or maybe foreign policy? We get along fine with Canada and to a great degree Mexico, but would there be lingering animosities between Red and Blue America that exacerbate over time? Would they eventually come to blows? And would it be an issue that the blue states (the coasts) were physically divided by the red states (flyover country)? 

Those are questions we can’t answer, and may be some of the reasons people would rather put up with the folks on the other side of the aisle than contemplate secession. But the liberals are becoming more assertive (I call it vicious) in their push to impose their values on the rest of us, and I personally opt for secession. I see them as an evil that we must bear, and it makes life less joyous. 

Obviously the conservative movement does not have the moral certitude  (or intelligence) to defend themselves and their values, and the country as a whole does not have the desire to take it this far. All I can say is that when ya’ll are ready, let me know. 

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